Section 16 in Bihar Electricity Regulatory Commission (Multi Year Distribution Tariff) Regulations, 2015
16. Metered Sales forecast.
- 16.1 Forecasting Methodology Metered sales shall be treated as an uncontrollable parameter:Provided that open access transactions shall not form part of the sales:Provided further that sales forecast shall be based on past trends in each of the slabs of consumer categories. The cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) of past 3 years of sales within each of the slabs of a consumer category as approved in True-up orders shall be used to forecast up to short and medium (5 years) time range:Provided also that in case of following occurrences, prudent adjustment of fore casted metered sales shall be carried out:(a)Abnormal trend or variation in the growth rate of particular category / slab consumer mix in any given area (on the basis of proposed city plan, tax holidays, Government incentives for industrial establishments, migration of consumers due to open access, etc.)(b)Abnormal trend in the growth rate of a particular slab/category of consumers.(c)Inflection point in economic cycle (boom, slowdown, recession or expansion)(d)Variations in weather conditions(e)Materially significant findings during audit check as per Regulation 16.2 of these regulations.Provided also that in cases where slab-wise sales to each consumer category are not available in audited books of accounts and only consolidated sales are available, the Distribution Licensee shall include the slab-wise sales along with the Business Plan and Tariff petition.16.2Overhaul Exercise(a)A team shall be formed by Distribution Licensee to validate the status of meters, load of metered consumers and category classification of consumers in the area of operations of Distribution Licensee.(b)The overhaul exercise shall be a year-long assessment study conducted on monthly basis for the first year subsequent to the notification of these Regulations.(c)For the overhaul exercise, consumers shall be sampled for a monthly overhaul from the circles served by the Distribution Licensee.Provided that the sample so chosen shall be close representation of geographic, demographic, industrial/ commercial/ residential/ agricultural spread served by the Distribution Licensee:(d)In the event, inconsistencies are found in the number of metered consumers, status of the meters, load at consumer premises or category classification of the consumers, the forecast arrived at in Regulation 16.1 on the basis of CAGR of historical (3 years) audited sales shall be adjusted accordingly as specified in Regulation 16.1.
